氢气长管拖车运输定量风险分析

Quantitative risk analysis of Hydrogen tube trailer transport

随着氢能源的发展及氢气长管拖车的大量使用,氢气长管拖车的安全越来越受到人们的重视,为了对氢气长管拖车运输的风险进行评估,采用了事件树方法对事故频率进行分析,并结合氢气泄漏的喷射火、爆炸事故模型,对事故后果进行量化分析,得出不同事故场景对氢气长管拖车的影响范围,最后根据频率与后果的乘积计算出不同事故场景的风险值,并将此风险指标值与公众可接受风险指标进行比较,得出氢气长管拖车运输风险是否可接受。通过实例应用,为氢气运输进一步的定量风险分析提供了有效的思路和方法。

With the development of Hydrogen energy and Hydrogen tube trailer was used in abun- dance, the transport safety of Hydrogen tube trailer has been paid more and more attention. In or- der to assess the risk of hydrogen tube trailer transport, the frequency of accidents was analyzed by ETA （the event tree analysis） method and combined the accident models of jet fire and explosion, then the accident consequence were quantized, the influence areas of different accidental scenarios are obtained. Finally risk index is the product result of event frequency and event consequences. Results of risk index are compared with social acceptability limits of risk set by some countries to determine whether they are acceptable or not. Through example application ,which provided effective idea and method for further quantitative risk analysis of hydrogen transport.