上市公司财务预警实证研究——来自制造业数据

Research on the Warning Models of Financial Crisis of Listed Company

本文选择2010年和2009年我国78家制造业上市公司为研究样本,建立适合上市公司的财务危机预警模型,对其数据进行了研究,结果表明:我国制造业上市公司财务数据有效,并具有较强的预测能力。能够预测其未来发生财务危机的概率,财务指标包含着一定的信息含量,财务数据的使用者能够根据企业的资产负债表、利润表和现金流量表所提供的信息对企业将来是否会发生财务危机做出较为准确的预测。

The thesis selects and analyzes 18 indexes on 5 perspectives of 48 manufacturing companies in China in 2010 on the purpose of finding factors which distinguish companies with financial crisis and that of non-crisis. Therefore, we can build for the warning models of financial crisis available to listed companies in China. The models would be constructed to provide tools which can predict financial crisis of a company with relative accuracy for administrators to make reference and final decision.