基于VAR模型的我国生物医药研发投入与医药经济增长研究

Study on the Relationship between Biomedical Research and Development Investment in China and Medical Economic Growth Based on the VAR Model

目的:深入研究我国生物医药研发投入与医药经济增长之间的定量关系。方法:根据我国1995—2008年主要年份的有关数据,建立向量自回归模型,对我国生物医药研发投入与医药经济增长之间的长期均衡关系进行检验,在协整关系存在的前提下,进一步检验二者的格兰杰因果关系。结果与结论:生物医药作为我国战略性新兴产业之一,其研发投入和医药经济增长之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,且生物医药研发投入对医药经济增长有促进作用,但作用不显著。并且促进作用存在时滞,但时效长久。此外,我国医药经济增长对生物医药研发投入的拉动作用不大。

Objective： To analyze the quantitative relationship between the biomedical research and development investment in China and medical economic growth.Method： According to the primary years＇ data from 1995 to 2008,vector regression model is established to test the long-term equilibrium relationship between the biomedical research and development investment in China and medical economic growth.In the presence of the premise of the cointegration,the granger causality between them is tested.Result and Conclusion： Biomedical is one of the strategic and emerging industries in China.There was a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between biomedical research,and development investment in China promotes medical economic growth.The biomedical research and development investment can promote medical economic growth,but not significantly.And the promotion lags but works for long time.In addition,medical economic growth in China played a small role on boosting the biomedical research and development..