要素积累还是技术进步?——对中国工业行业增长因素的实证研究

Factors accumulation or technical progress? study on the factors of China's Sub-industrial growth

使用包括人力资本的三要素投入超越对数生产函数研究了1985-2007年中国36个二位数工业行业的增长因素。研究发现:(1)工业行业平均要素产出弹性合计为0.993,中国工业大体上表现出规模报酬不变特征;(2)初级要素投入是推动工业产出增长的首要因素,但智力要素也发挥了重要作用;(3)从产业部门看,技术密集型产业和劳动密集型产业表现为集约型增长。资本密集型产业、采矿业、公用事业表现为粗放型增长。单独对垄断性行业的核算发现,垄断性行业的产出增长完全依靠初级要素的大量投入,是典型的粗放式增长。因此,要推动工业增长方式的转变,实现可持续增长,必须切实提高公用事业、资本密集型行业、采矿业等产业部门创新能力和技术进步水平。另外,加快对垄断性行业的改革已经成为转变工业增长方式的重中之重。

The Paper investigates the growth factor of China＇s 36 sub-industries based on translog production function including human capital from 1985 to 2007.The main findings are：（1） the average output elasticity of factors added up to 0.993,by and large,the whole industry of china display constant returns to scale;（2）the primary factors are the main driving force to the growth of china＇s industry,and the intelligence factors also play an important role;（3） the technology-intensive industry and the labor-intensive industry are the intensive type of growth,on the contrary,the capital-intensive industry,the mining and the public utilities display the mode of extensive growth.The growth of monopoly industries are completely motivated by the primary inputs.It is prerequisite to promote the innovation ability and the technological progress of the capital-intensive industry,the mining and the public utilities in order to accomplish sustainable growth.In addition,it is urgent to accelerate the reform of the monopoly industries.