中国城市化和工业化对能源消费的影响研究

Influence of Urbanization and Industrialization on China's Energy Consumption

中国是世界上第二大能源消费国。随着中国的城市化和工业化,中国的能源消费将会进一步增加。以能源消费为因变量,以城市化、工业化和能源价格为自变量,建立多元线性回归模型,估算中国城市化和工业化对能源消费的影响。研究结果表明,GDP,工业增加值占GDP比重,城镇人口比重都会增加中国的能源消费;第三产业比重则会降低中国能源消费;另外由于技术进步和节能政策的作用,中国能源消费还存在着一个负的时间趋势。采用回归方程以中国十二五规划中城市化和工业化的部分目标为依据,对中国2015年的能源消费进行了预测,预测结果表明十二五期间中国能源消费将维持6%左右的增长速度。在此基础上,从产业结构,能源价格和节能技术等方面对中国的节能政策进行分析。

China is the second largest energy consuming country in the world.With industrialization and urbanization,energy consumption will increase further.By taking energy consumption as the dependent variable,urbanization and industrialization and energy prices as independent variables,a model of multivariate and linear regression is built to estimate the influence of urbanization and industrialization on energy consumption.The results show that,GDP,GDP proportion of industrial added value and town population proportion will increase China＇s energy consumption;the tertiary industry proportion will reduce the energy consumption;and as a result of technological progress and energy policy,there is a negative time trend of energy consuming.By using some targets of urbanization and industrialization during the 12th Five-Year Plan of China,the regression equation is used to predict energy consumption of 2015,the forecasting results show that energy consumption will maintain 6% growth rate during the 12th Five-Year Plan.At last,China＇s energy policy is analyzed from the industrial structure,energy price and energy saving technology and so on.