山东省能源消费碳排放预测

Prediction of Carbon Emission from Energy Consumption in Shandong Province

基于《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》估算了17种能源的碳排放系数,测算了1995—2009年山东省的能源消费碳排放量。选取人口、城镇化率、人均GDP、工业GDP比例、能源消耗强度作为山东省碳排放的影响因素,分别应用偏最小二乘回归和岭回归构建了预测山东省能源消费碳排放的STIRPAT模型。通过对比基于两种回归所得模型的拟合效果,最终选择岭回归模型预测了2010—2015年山东省能源消费碳排放量。最后提出了山东省碳减排的相关对策。

According to IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,this paper estimates the carbon emission coefficients of 17 kinds of energy,and calculates the carbon emission from energy consumption in Shandong province from 1995 to 2009. Selecting population,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,proportion of added value of industry and energy consumption intensity as the factors influencing the carbon emission of Shandong province,it constructs STIRPAT model to predict the carbon emission from energy consumption in Shandong province through the partial least square regression and the ridge regression. By comparision of fitting effects,it selects the ridge regression model to predict the carbon emission from energy consumption in Shandong province from 2010 to 2015. Finally,it provides relevant countermeasures for re- ducing the carbon emission of Shandong province.