公共民生视野下的政府最优规模——基于DEA-Tobit回归修正法估计

Government Optimal Size in the View of People's Livelihood——Based on DEA-Tobit Regression Correction Method

利用数据包络分析和Tobit回归修正法,从公共民生角度对1978~2008年的我国政府最优规模进行了估计。结果显示：在经济增长目标下,预算内支出平均最优规模为13.21%,预算内外支出平均最优规模为20.06%;但在公共民生目标下,二者分别为15.61%和21.78%。这意味着政府最优规模的衡量标准应与不同经济发展阶段的政府职能定位相匹配,并没有一个＂放之四海而皆准＂的绝对标准。因此,应该结合国情,从不同角度审视政府的最优规模,并有效调整公共支出结构。

This paper develops data envelopment analysis and Tobit Regression Correction methods for estimating the government optimal scale during 1978-2008 from public people＇s livelihood.Available data suggest that,the average optimal size of the budget expenditure is 13.21% and the average optimal size of the on-budget and off-budget expenditure is 20.06% based on economic growth.But they are respectively 15.61% and 21.78% based on the public service.This implies whether or not the government size itself is reasonable,which is affected by the orientation of government function in the different economic development stages,and there is not absolute standard.Therefore,we should review the government optimal size from the different perspectives linking the national conditions,and effectively adjust the structure of public expenditure.