西方通货紧缩理论评析

An Analysis of the Western Ddflation Theory

凯恩斯不仅是通货膨胀理论大师，更是通货紧缩理论的伟大奠基者和创始人。他的“有效需求不足”理论不仅是实行通货膨胀的重要依据，更是通货紧缩理论的基石。对他提出的“三个心理规律”，应重新进行科学审视。费雪的“债务─—通缩”理论揭示了货币供应量与通胀及通缩的内在关系，尽管有其阶级局限性，但在一定意义上阐明了通缩形成机理，也具有一定合理性。萨缨尔森、布坎南、瓦格纳等人的“滞─—胀”理论认为；二战后“滞─—胀”的发生、发展及反通胀的强力紧缩政策的过度后果造成了“滞─—缩”。克鲁格曼针对当今世界上诸多国家发生的通货紧缩．认为它不是由供给过剩造成的，而起因于社会总需求不足，提出用“有管理的通货膨胀”来对它进行治理。对上述通货紧缩理论可借鉴其合理有益成份，但绝不可照抄照搬，机械套用。

Keynes is not only a master of the inflation theory but also more importantly the great founder of the deflation theory. His exposition of 'the deficiency in the effective demand' is the foundation of the deflation theory as well as the basis for the inflation theory. A frensh scientific evaluation should be made of the 'three psychological laws' proposed by Keynes. Fisher's 'debt --deflation' theory reveals the internal relations between the amount of money supply and the inflation and deflation. It is true that his theory has its class limitations. Nonetheless, it, to some extent, expounded the mechanism of the formation of deflation and therefore has some rationality. The 'stagnation --deflation' theory proposed by Samuelson, Buchanan and Wagner holds that after World War 11, the appearance and developrment of the ' stagnation -- inflation' and the counter -- inflationary tight money policy resulted in 'stagnation -- deflation '. In view of the deflation occurring in many countries, Krugman proposes that the deflation is not a result of the excessive supply hut rather originates in the deficiency in the aggregate demand. He further proposes its remedy by' a managed inflation '. As for the above theories, a rational selection of their useful elements should be made in the application and any blind and mechanical copping be avoided.