我国人口惯性的区域差异研究

The Regional Differences of Population Momentum in China

使用Preston法分析了1980-2000年我国各省人口惯性的变化趋势,探讨了地区间人口惯性的差异程度。1982-2000年中国各省人口惯性对人口增长的影响正在急剧减弱,各个省份正在从强烈正增长惯性类别向负增长惯性类别聚集。高达70%的省份的人口惯性已经告别人口强正增长惯性,北京、天津、上海、辽宁四个省份已经呈现人口负增长惯性。1982-2000年中国各省人口惯性呈现出下降速度快、幅度大的趋势。提醒人们注意到我国人口惯性在地区间的差异性,及早关注一些已经或即将出现负人口惯性增长地区的未来人口态势。

Using Preston method, this paper examines the trends and the degree of variation of population momentum among each province of China between 1980 and 2000. Three main points are concluded：firstly, positive population momentum was decreasing steeply, and a convergence was emerging from the strong positive population momentum to negative momentum of different level in Chinese provinces during 1982 to 2000. Secondly, the strong positive population momentum effects disappeared in up to 70% of the provinces. In addi- tion, negative population momentum has already taken place in Beijing, Tianjing, Shanghai and Liaoning province. Thirdly, population momentum of Chinese provinces deceased in a faster and wider trend from 1982 to 2000. This reminds us to pay attention to population momentum heterogeneity among different areas in China, especially future＇ s population trend in provinces where negative population momentum have already appeared or would ap- pear soon.