国际人口政策转向对中国的启示

The Global Population Policy Shift and Lessons for China

世界人口面临新的形势,人口增长掉头,且人口转变呈现多元化态势,其根本原因是各国生育率以不同的速度下滑。世界人口大势的转变引发各国政府对生育率态度的转变以及对生育政策的调整。越来越多国家出台鼓励生育政策,这不仅发生在生育率长期低迷的欧洲,也发生在生育率快速下降的东亚和大洋洲。东亚地区日本、新加坡、韩国和中国台湾已转而推行鼓励生育措施,并不断加强政策力度,效果却差强人意。同样处于很低生育率水平的中国仍在努力维持当前的低生育水平,与他国的政策调整渐行渐远,这将对社会与家庭造成难以弥补的负面影响。中国人口政策的调整已迫在眉睫。

The growth rate of world population has begun to decline and demographic transitions in differentcountries are becoming more diverse,which is rooted in the varied fertility rate declines in differentcountries.More and more countries have changed their fertility policies to encourage their people toraise fertility rate.Not only European countries but those in East Asia and Oceania countries areincreasingly promoting pronatalistic policies.Japan,Singapore,South Korea and Taiwan have alladopted and strengthened fertility-encouraging measures,but have limited effect.China,already with alow fertility rate,has been trying to maintain the existing policy to control fertility,which will have aprofound and irreversible adverse impact on the society.It is high time China changed its populationpolicy.