三峡库区地质灾害防治政策变量效应评价分析

Analysis on Effect Evaluation of Policy Variability Concerning Prevention of Geological Disasters in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

地质灾害防治政策法规评价是对地质灾害防治政策及法规实施之后的效果与作用进行检测的一种必要手段。为合理地评价三峡库区地质灾害防治政策法规的效应,选取了三峡库区地质灾害防治政策与社会经济发展水平的关系作为出发点,运用生产函数建立评价模型,将相关政策与法规统称为政策变量,对其进行量化。评价结果表明:(1)由于法规的滞后性和长期性,使其不能化解地方政府在具体的地质灾害防治过程中出现的问题;(2)政策因素对地质灾害防治有显著作用;(3)地质灾害防治体系中法规因素是基础,政策因素是政府在防治工作中的重要手段,政策因素可以弥补法规因素中的不完善。因此,应完善法规制度并重视预防工作。

This paper mainly discusses the methods for evaluating the effects of policies and regulations for prevention of geological disasters in three gorges reservoir area,these include: selecting the relationship between the policies of prevention of geological disasters and the social and economic development level as the starting point,establishing evaluation model by using production function,quantifying the policy variability which referred to the related policies and regulations.The results shows that because of the hysteresis and long-lasting of laws and regulations,the problems occurred in the course of prevention of geological disasters cannot be solved by the local government;policy factors on the prevention of geological disasters have a remarkable effect;in the prevention system of geological disasters,regulations factors is the foundation,and policy factor is the important means for government to control,and policy factors can make up for the imperfect regulations factors,therefore,we should perfect the laws and regulations and pay attention to prevention work.