小麦中烟曲霉生长温度与水分活度预测模型的建立

Development of Predictive Model for Combined Effect of Temperature and Water Activity on the Growth of Aspergillus fumigatus on Wheat

为快速预测和监控引起小麦霉变的烟曲霉的生长,在15～40℃温度及0.70～0.96水分活度下进行小麦储藏模拟实验,建立和验证烟曲霉D6生长的一级和二级预测模型。结果表明,一级生长模型中Bo-ltsmann模型优于Logistic模型。以Boltsmann模型拟合数据建立二级模型,采用平方根模型拟合,得烟曲霉D6的最低生长温度和水分活度分别为5.784℃和0.721。经验证,平方根模型能较好描述烟曲霉D6最大比生长速率与温度、水分活度之间的对应关系。

To quickly predict and monitor the growth of Aspergillus fumigatus that can cause wheat to be affected by mildew,the growth models were developed using full factorial experimental design of six temperatures（15～40℃） and five water activity（Aw） values（0.70～0.96） on wheat.The results showed that Boltsmann equation was better than Logistic equation in the primary models,so the maximum colony growth rate（μmax） could be calculated from Boltsmann equation to establish secondary model.Subsequently,secondary model was developed and validated using square root model.Minimum temperature for growth was 5.784°C and minimum Aw for growth was 0.721 for Aspergillus fumigatus D6.Based on the validation criteria,the square root model can exactly describe the relationship between the maximum colony growth rate and the combined effect of Aw and temperature.