转型的迷茫与困惑

From Sovietology to Russianology:The Agony of the Switch

对于1990年前后苏联的激进"转型",美方的对策可以归纳为老布什政府的"三部曲":苏解体前消极观望、以不变应万变;解体后的短暂震撼与迷茫;以及随后的惊喜和庆贺。然而自诩为"赢得冷战"的布什,由于美国经济不振,民心浮动,在苏联解体后不久也输掉了大选。至此,尽管布、戈二人在外交方面的业绩可圈可点(戈1990年还获得诺贝尔和平奖),但都被各自的人民所抛弃。其实冷战的结局远非输赢可以定论。冷战是延续数百年的"西方内战"、即西方强权和主要意识形态相互对立和冲突的巅峰和最后阶段;各方均付出沉重代价。此后20年间,美国为追求绝对安全和绝对行动自由,耗损了大量软硬实力。冷战结束的真正意义在于,西方在整合内部以后,得以转向针对非西方世界的"文明冲突"。在学界,苏联解体使西方"苏联学"顿失目标和动力,西方国际关系学主流也集体失语,面临着非主流和新生派的强力挑战。美国《共产主义问题》杂志死而复生,成为美国的"苏联研究"转向"俄罗斯学"的缩影;西方的俄罗斯研究既面临转型的挑战和契机,也不乏巨大的想象和操作空间。

In the midst of the rapid .changes occurring when the Soviet Union was being displaced by Russia, the U.S. reciprocated with a three-strike policy： inaction or status-quo plus before the Soviet collapse, a brief period of shock and confusion following the collapse, and an overwhelming euphoria leading to the highly ideological polemic of who won the Cold War. Ironically, the victorious Bush lost election due to economic agony at home, thus joining Gorbachev as a ＂loser＂ abandoned by their respective constituencies at home despite their foreign policy accomplishment （Gorbachev was the 1990 Nobel Peace Prize winner）.The Cold War and its ending, however, can hardly be defined by a zero-sum, win-lose verdict. If anything, it was the culmination and final stage of the ＂Western civil wars＂ of the past centuries, during which major Western powers and ideologies were competing for primacy inflicting heavy costs on all sides. In the 20 years after the Cold War, the United States has squandered huge amount of its hard and soft power for its goals of absolute security and absolute freedom of action. The real implication of the end of the Cold War, if anything, is the West＇s re-direction towards ＂civilizationar＇ clashes against the non-West following the West＇s internal moderation and consolidation. In academia, Western Sovietology lost, almost overnight, its purpose and energy. Stunned by the sudden change, the main stream of Western international studies started to be challenged by peripheral and new forces. Perhaps more than anything else, the difficult transition from Sovietology to Russianology was evidenced by the decline and recovering of the journal of Problems of Communism, now renamed Problems of Post-Communism. Russianology in the West is now faced with challenges, opportunities as well as enormous intellectual space.