基于GKSIM模型的土地利用动态变化控制性模拟与预测——以江苏省为例

GKSIM Based Controlled Simulation and Prediction on the Dynamic Change of Land Use in Jiangsu Province

基于主导驱动因子的动态变化及其对土地利用变化的贡献率,基于GKSIM模型对江苏省土地利用动态变化进行控制性模拟预测,探讨在主导驱动因子GDP、人口和产业结构的影响下,江苏省土地利用未来变化态势.结果表明,随着GDP与人口的增长,江苏耕地和建设用地变化最为显著,表现为耕地面积呈减少趋势且与其他地类相比减少值最大,建设用地呈增加趋势且增加值最大,主要原因为江苏省经济快速发展进程下的快速工业化、城市化促进了建设用地对耕地的大量占用.基于GDP、总人口和产业结构三个主导驱动因子与土地利用变化间影响关系进行预测,可有效避免二者在时间维度上投影所产生的多步误差,较好地体现了主导驱动因子影响下的江苏省土地利用动态变化趋势.

Based on the dynamic variation of the main driving forces and their contributions to land use change,GKSIM model was applied to the controlled simulation and prediction on the dynamic change of land use in Jiangsu province in order to explore future land use tendency under the influence of the main factors： GDP,population and industrial structure.The results indicated that cultivated land and construction land changed most markedly with the growth of GDP and population which manifested as the two respects： cultivated land had a decreasing trend and decreased most than other kinds of land while construction land had an increasing trend and increased most.The main reasons were as follows： the rapid economic development of Jiangsu province led to rapid industrialization and construction land were increased by occupying great amounts of cultivated land.The prediction of the relationship between the three main driving forces（GDP,total population and industrial structure） and land use change could effectively avoid multistep error produced by projection on the time dimension and display the land use dynamic change in Jiangsu province.