电子产品废弃量预测及优化处置量

Quantity Prediction and Optimal Disposal Capacity of Electronics Obsolete

电子废物回收处置问题逐年显现,只有精确地预测出未来电子产品的废弃量,才能使政府制定最佳应对战略进而改善超量电子产品废弃及回收的问题.用系统动力学的方法预测了电子产品废弃量,并引入产品使用寿命及成长极限的概念,以时间动态的方式预测未来20年洗衣机的废弃量.在不同因素的相互影响下,洗衣机废弃量也将不同于传统回归分析的结果.最后采用情境分析方法模拟出3种最可能发生的电子废物产出情形,并以启发式算法求解了最佳扩充或减缩回收厂处置容量的处置能力和时间点,以解决即将到来的过剩电子废物问题,并为政府部门制定政策提供依据.

The problem of electronic waste recycling gradually emerge in the next few years.Only the accurate estimation of the future waste production can help the government draw out best strategies to cope with the problem of the electronic products over-production and recycling.By using system dynamics method and introducing the concept of product life span and increase limit,the washer waste volume in the future 20 years was predicted.For some new factors being taken into account,the results were different from the result drawn from the traditional regression analysis.By using scenario analysis,three waste output models most likely occur were simulated.By using heuristic algorithm,the optimal time for adjusting the disposal capacity were investigated.This way can help to solve the impending problem of surplus electronic waste and provide a reference for the government to make policies.