云阳县柏木生长与气候变化和虫害发生的关系

Relationship between Growth of Tree-Ring Width of Cupressus funebris and Climate Change,Pest Occurrence in Yunyang County

应用树木年轮生态学方法研究三峡库区云阳县柏木生长动态,通过交叉定年并滤除遗传因子对生长的影响,建立柏木标准年表和残差年表,并进行年表与气候因子相关性分析。结果表明:云阳县柏木年轮生长与当年春季平均温度之间存在极显著负相关关系,与1,2月的月平均温度之间存在显著负相关关系;月降雨量和湿度指数对柏木生长没有显著影响。柏木鞭角华扁叶蜂的发生与标准年表的相关分析表明柏木叶蜂的发生总面积、柏木感虫率与柏木生长存在显著相关关系。通过多元回归得出云阳柏木年轮指数与气候因子的关系模型,用于柏木生长的预测模拟。

The dynamic of radial growth of Cupressus funebris in Yunyang County, Three-Gorges reservoir area was assessed by dendroecological techniques. The residual chronology （RES） and standard chronology （STD） of C. funebris were developed through crossdating after filtering out the genetic factors which influence tree-ring growth using a mathematic model, and the relationship between radial growth of C. funebris and climate factors were analyzed. The result showed that there was a significantly negative relationship between the tree-ring growth and the mean temperature of current spring season. The radial growth was significantly and negatively affected by the mean monthly temperature in January and February. Additionally, there was no significant relationship between tree-ring growth and monthly precipitation, monthly humidity index. The correlation analysis between the occurrence of Chinolyda flagellicornis and STD also demonstrated that the total occurring area of C. flagellicornis and the infection rate of C. funebris were significantly correlated with the tree-ring growth. Finally, the correlation model of tree-ring width index and climatic factors was established by multi-factor regression for predicting growth of C. funebris.