中国央行冲销干预政策可持续性分析

The Sustainability Analysis on Sterilized Intervention Policy of our Central Bank

近年来,随着中国央行冲销干预力度的持续加大,冲销干预可持续性问题逐步成为研究的热点。本文通过简单的公式测算和建立一个基于央行损失最小化的模型,分别对央行冲销干预的微观及宏观损益进行大体的估量。研究结果认为,尽管央行面临着微观层面上不断上升的冲销干预成本,但如果考虑到冲销干预政策在抑制通货膨胀、维护出口竞争力和就业方面所产生的宏观收益,以及现阶段仍存在着的有利于大规模冲销干预的制度背景,央行仍将在一定的时间与一定程度上维持冲销干预,直至汇率形成机制全面转向浮动汇率制。

In recent years, with China＇ s central bank sterilized intervention continually increased, the sustainability of sterilized intervention has gradually become the focus of re- search. This study suggests that, as the cost of sterilized intervention rising, and the back- ground environment of macroeconomic market-based trending, the sustainability of sterilized intervention will continue to be challenged and questioned. However, if taking into account the current institutional background and the macro-benefits of sterilized intervention, the central bank will maintain sterilized intervention at certain time and to some extent ,until the exchange rate mechanism comprehensively change to floating system.