中国的物价上涨是货币超发引发的吗?

Does China's Price Rising Arise from Money Over-issuing?

货币与物价之间的关系一直是货币经济学和宏观经济学研究的核心问题。本文运用扩展VAR模型的Granger因果检验和广义脉冲响应函数等处理方法,基于2000Q1～2010Q4的季度数据,实证检验了中国的物价上涨是否由货币超发引发,以及货币流动速度、虚拟经济和通货膨胀预期等因素如何影响这一作用的发挥。结果发现,中国的物价上涨并不是货币超发带来的流动性过剩引发的,货币供给的内生性、货币流通速度下降以及虚拟经济发展等因素,使得货币超发导向物价上涨的传递管道受到钳制。但通过预期的自我实现机制,流动性过剩可能助推通货膨胀预期拉动价格上涨,在长期决定价格水平的仍会是货币供给。本文的实证结果表明,要充分发挥货币政策的价格调控作用,不仅需要进一步提高货币政策的独立性和主动性,还需要把虚拟经济的波动纳入决策信息集,并理顺货币市场的流通体系。

The relationship between money supply and price is very important for the study of Monetary Eco nomics and Maeroeconomics. ＂Monetary puzzle in China＂ attracts many people＇s attention to China＇s price and money supply. Most literatures try to study relationship between them, but their research conclusions are different. However, existing researches have obvious drawbacks. First of all, most studies based on closed research perspeetive, and didn＇t include globalization factors in their analysis framework. Although some articles have paid attention to external shock, they just treat import as the only factor. In fact, with the improvement of economic globalization, export demand can affect China＇s price through a variety of channels. Besides, it is based on constant velocity of money and the real economy which is dominant that monetary theory on one to one relationship between money sup ply and price in the short term can come into existence, but China＇s current velocity of money declines obviously, virtual economy has become an important part of macroeconomie. Former studies seldom drew these into their framework. This paper uses an Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve to build models, which take foreign output gap as quantitative indicators of global factors. By adopting quarterly data from 2000Q1 through 2010Q4 with Granger Causality Test and Generalized Impulse Response which is based on Lag-Augmented VAR Model, this paper tests whether China＇s price rising arise from money over-issuing or not, and what are money velocity＇s and fictitious economy＇s roles in it. The empirical results show that excess liquidity isn＇t the main reason for China＇s price rising, it is the disequilibrium of domestic product and factor market and external shocks from global market that are core reasons. Because of China＇s special economic and financial structure, it is obvious that both bank deposits and forex purchase have strong endogeneity. So it will weaken the relationship between price and money supply. Be sides, with the decrease of the ratio of transaction demand of business for money to total money, the velocity of money tends to go down, then it makes the relationship between the two becomes loose. In addition, fictitious economy absorbs the excess money which should have flown into real economy, but Chinese fictitious economy has dis- tinctly deviated from real economy, which can cut off the relationship between price rising and excess liquidity. However, excess liquidity will push price rising pressure by virtue of inflation expectation. Especially, excess liq uidity will arouse firm＇s optimistic expectation. When firm presumes that economic prosperity is coming, it will increase investment and improve output, then result in price rising. So the price level will depend on money supply in the long run. Based on this paper, several policy recommendations are made. If government wants to fight against price fluctuation by monetary policy, it is necessary that central bank should enhance policy＇s independence and autonomy. Furthermore, it is not only real economy but also fictitious one that central bank should consider when it implements monetary policy. In addition, if we want monetary policy to play a better role in reducing price rising pressure, we must streamline money market and make the money supply be a good symbol for price. In the long run, it is essential that central bank should substitute money supply for interest rate as the intermediate target of monetary policy. At last, it is not money over-issuing but domestic and foreign output gap are the main reasons for China＇s price rising. So we must pay more attention to the perspective of domestic and foreign economy. On one hand, moderate rate of economic growth should hold to prevent economic overheating, on the other hand, it is urgent to increase the flexibility of exchange rate regime to defend against external shocks. What＇s more, China should reverse the pattern of over-reliance on external demand and investment in the long run, it is very important to curb price rising.