装备制造业原始创新绩效的系统动力学研究

Study on Original Innovation Achievements with System Dynamics in Equipment Manufacturing Industry

原始创新能力不足是我国装备制造业在国际竞争中缺乏核心竞争力的根本原因,对于创新资源相对稀缺的发展中国家而言,对装备制造业原始创新体系绩效高效的资源配置是提升装备制造业原始创新能力的有效途径。本文在充分分析装备制造业原始创新的基础上,应用系统动力学构建装备制造业原始创新绩效模型,在验证了模型有效性的前提下,对装备制造业绩效进行了实证分析。从仿真结果来看,要达到增加装备制造业发明专利和新产品产值的目的,不能仅仅依靠改变系统模型某一个变量,更重要的是通过合理调节投入分配的比例,掌握变量间的因果关系,才能从根本上提高装备制造业的原始创新绩效。

The development of strategic new industry has become crucial strategies for the world＇s major countries to control the commanding height in a new round of economic and technological development. Thus, the enhancement of development of equipment manufacturing industry, a basic industry providing national economic development with technical equipment, has become the core problem through China＇s economic development. While, the root cause for China＇s equipment manufacturing industry lack of core competence in international competition is the insufficiency of original innovation. With regard to this developing country encompassing relative scarcity of resources for innovation, the effective way tosolve this problem is carrying on resources allocation in efficient achievement on the original innovation system having existed before. The original innovation system, consisting of several factors, is a dynamic system, operating on the plausible application of the inner resource in an enterprise as well as information communication and feedback between enterprise and the environment （ factors, like government, financial institution, etc）, which, therefore, turns out to be a typical information feedback system, achievements characterized in past behavioral decision to some degree. In traditional researching ways, people get used to concentrating on a certain factor or clip in the process of original innovation, only working when analyzing some specific micro-leveled simple, not complicated systematical, original innovation activities ,which becomes increasingly apparent so that it＇s time to find a new way especially with the constant expanding of this system. As for system dynamics,it is a method to study on information feedback system, based on the mutual close reliance between systematical behaviors and internal mechanism, gained by the establishment and operation of mathematical models, and used to find out the casual relationship among the mode-changing factors. System dynamics is an appropriate tool for quantitative analysis of original innovation system in equipment manufacturing industry, which stress that attention should be paid to the organization and operation process in an enterprise, followed by the draft of proper strategies, not to the surroundings. Hence, on the basis of a full analysis about original innovation, system dynamics should be applied to build an achievement model of original innovation, verifying the validity of achievements, thus empirically analyzing the achievements . Simulation results indicate that in order to achieve the target of increasing the output values of invention patents and new products in equipment manufacturing industry, the measures should not only be depending on changing a certain variable in the system model, but more importantly, be mastering the causal relationship between variables by rationally adjusting the portion of input distribution. Therefore the original innovation achievements can be improved radically. The increasing proportion of new product development aims to increase the proportion of the funds of business research and development of whose approach is not only to increase the proportion of personal capital of business but also win over the financial support from the country, local government, local research center and business technology establishment center. The positive introduction of foreign capital and social funds and financial support from the- banking institution and venture capital can ensure the fluent progress of research and original innovation of business. It is necessary for the business to increase the investment in technology organization through the establishment of individual scientific research organization which can improve the level of scientific research and perfect the management mechanism in order to offer a better innovated environment and strengthen the management mechanism. So theincrease of research fund can promote the speed of original innovation development a lot. The aim to increase the inventive patent of equipment manufacturing industry and production value of new product is not only to depend on the change of one variable in a system model, more importantly, to adjust the proportion of investment and distribution and control the causal relationship of the variable to increase the performance of original innovation in equipment manufacturing industry fundamentally.