复杂系统可靠性上下限预测的一种简化方法

A simple method for reliable forecast of upper and lower limit to complex systems

由于复杂系统可靠性上下限预测法具有如下主要优点：其一，不要求各单元之间相互独立；其二，既适用于各种储备系统，又适用于多种目标和阶段工作的系统；其三，还适用于难以建立精确数学模型的系统，因而获得了比较广泛的应用。其缺点是：为了获得精确的预测结果，必须进行多次逼近，并随着逼近次数的增多，计算也越来越复杂。本文结出了一种便于工程实际应用且计算简单、误差较小的公式。

The method for reliable forecast of upper and lower limit to complex systems is widely used on engineering evaluation.With the increase of the time of approximations,the calculation becomes more and more complicated.The author presents a forecast formula easy of practical use in engineering,simple in calculation and small in deriation.