利用区间估计确定某矿矿井突水预警值

Using Interval Estimation to Determine Groundwater Inrush Warning Value of a Mine

在某矿2002—2007年的一组矿井涌水量实测值的基础上,采用χ2拟合检验,得出该矿在相应时间内的矿井涌水量近似服从xi～N(817.75,1 970.92)的正态分布。利用区间估计得出矿井涌水量均值在置信度为95%时的置信区间,并依据小概率事件原理将该置信区间的上限值设为矿井突水预警值。再以该矿-500 m水平某测点1999—2000年的涌水量实测值为样本,在地质条件稳定且无人为因素影响的情况下,一段时间内,该测点的矿井涌水量均值在置信度为95%时的置信区间为(345.033,394.807),并将394.807 m3/h设为其相应的突水预警值,以判断工作面开采期间的突水情况,结果与实际情况吻合。

Based on the measurement of water discharge in a mine during 2002—2007,χ2 fitting examination was employed and the result showing that the mine water discharge approximately obeyed the normal distribution of xi—N(817.75,1970.92) was obtained.A confidence interval with 95% confidence level for the mean value of mine water discharge was obtained though interval estimation.Then the upper limit value of this confidence interval was defined as the warning value of water inrush according to the little probability event principle.By taking the actual measurement of water discharge at a point at-500 m level during 1999—2000 as the sample,the mean value of the mine water discharge at this measuring point was(345.033,394.807) in the confidence interval with 95% confidence level in a period of time in the case of stable geological condition and without any artificial impact,394.807 m3/h was chosen as the warning value of groundwater inrush and used for judging water inrush in the working face during coal winning.This result was consistent with the actual situation.