能源冲击与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

Energy Shock and Economic Fluctuations in China—the Study Based on a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

中国经济的快速发展伴随着大量的能源消耗,能源价格的快速上涨势必会对经济的稳定性带来负面影响。考虑到经济波动源的不唯一性,本文构建一个三部门的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,着重研究能源冲击对中国经济的影响,探讨冲击的传导机制。外生冲击的传导机制由模型的消费跨期替代、劳动力与消费替代、利率政策规则等决定,但各种冲击的具体传导路径存在着差异。模拟结果显示,各种冲击来源中能源冲击对宏观经济的影响最大;若使用国际能源价格进行冲击实验,则我国的经济波动进一步放大;而利率规则有减弱经济波动的效果。

China＇s rapid economic development accompanied by huge amount of energy consumption and the rap- id increases of energy prices would no doubt have negative impact on the economic stability. Considering that the resource of the economic fluctuation is not unique, a three＇-sector DSGE model is built to study the impact of energy shock on the Chinese economy and the transmission mechanism of the shock as well. The transmission mechanism of the exogenous shocks are determined by the principles in this model such as intertemporal substi- tution of consumption, labor and consumer substitution and interest rate policy rules, but the specific pathways of exogenous shocks are different. The simulation results showed that among all the shocks, the energy shock has the most influence on the macro economy and if using the international energy price data to simulate, the fluctuations of China＇s economy would expand. Besides, interest rate rules could ease this fluctuation.