人口结构转变与中国住房需求:1999～2025——基于人口普查数据的微观实证研究

Demography Dynamics and Housing Demand in China:1999～2025—Evidence from Census Data

本文首次利用人口普查数据对人口结构转变和中国住房需求的关系进行实证研究。经验观察表明,"婴儿潮"很可能是2004年以来中国住房价格快速上涨的重要原因。基于微观家户数据的实证研究发现,中国居民住房需求与年龄高度相关:个人在20岁以后住房需求快速上升,直到50岁以后开始逐步下降;这些实证结果对于测量误差、样本选择、住房产权类型都是稳健的;进一步研究表明,"组群效应"是50岁以后个体住房需求下降的主要原因。以人口结构转变为基础,本文估算了1999～2025年中国的住房需求,发现住房需求增长率很好地拟合了2004年以来住房价格的变化;同时,人口老龄化将导致中国住房需求增长率在2012年以后大幅下降,这意味着中国未来住房需求存在下行可能,宏观调控政策需要未雨绸缪。

This paper investigates the relationship between demographic change and housing demand using the census data. The time series data suggests that ＂baby boom＂ plays an important role in the rapidly increasing housing price occurred in China recently. Based on household level data, we find that housing demand is highly related to age. Housing demand increases sharply from 20 to 50 years old after which it begins to decline gradu- ally. These empirical findings are robust to measurement error, sample selection bias and house ownership. Further study shows that ＂cohort effect＂ contributes to the falling housing demand after one＇s 50 years old. Based upon changes in population structure, we estimate the aggregated housing demand in China from 1999 to 2025 and find,that the growth rate of housing demand fits the housing price well since 2004. At the same time, we expect that the growth rate of housing demand will drop significantly in 2012 due to demographic change.