跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP)的成本收益分析：中国的视角

A Cost Benefits Analysis of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement(TPP):A Chinese Perspective

早在谈判初期,TPP就宣称将达成一个全面的、高水平的面向21世纪的自由贸易协议,但事实上,TPP将无助于加强亚太地区的经济联系,更无法解决亚太地区的"意大利面条碗效应"问题。关于TPP的成本收益分析表明,经济小国或许能够从TPP中获益,但是对大国而言,TPP基本没有经济价值。TPP只是美国应对东亚合作、获得非传统经济利益的工具。从中国角度看,长期内,克服TPP负面影响的根本途径是扩大内需;中期内则需要与日本共同推动实现东亚合作,确保中国在整个TPP博弈中获得次优结果。

From the outset of negotiations,TPP claimed to have the goal of realizing a comprehensive,high-quality ＂21st Century＂ free trade agreement.In reality,TPP will not help to enhance economic relations in the Asia-Pacific region,nor will it overcome the ＂Spaghetti Bowl Effect＂ faced by the region.A cost-benefit analysis of TPP reveals that while small states may benefit from TPP,for large states TPP offers virtually no economic value.TPP is only a tool for the United States to respond to East Asian cooperation and obtain non-traditional economic benefits.From China＇s perspective,developing its domestic market is the best way of overcoming the negative impacts of TPP over the long term;over the medium term,China needs to work with Japan to promote East Asian cooperation to ensure that it can maximize its interests against the background of TPP.