基于ISM方法的群体性事件诱发因素研究

Research of Inducing Factors of Mass Event Based on Interpretative Structural Modeling

运用系统工程理论,借助数值计算软件,建立了群体性事件45种诱发因素的多层递阶解释结构模型,理清了诱发因素之间的逻辑关系。模型揭示了在社会转型的大背景下,新机制不完善是群体性事件的根源,而利益矛盾、贪污腐败、劳资纠纷等都是群体性事件的具体诱发因素,利益整合机制不完善、有利情境、偶然事件、政府公信力下降、社会控制弱、社会不满及社会紧张是各项具体因素的综合体现。最后,依据模型,提出了群体性事件的治理模式的三个层次,包括建立适应社会的新机制,出台有针对性的法律法规,制定群体性事件的具体应对策略。

The main purpose of this paper is to establish the multi-layer hierarchical interpretative structure model of 45 factors to incur mass event by the system engineering theory with the help of numerical software. The model clears the hierarchical relationship between different factors and shows that social mechanisms imperfect are fundamental factors; specific factors include interest conflicts, corruption, labor trouble etc., and all of these specific factors reflect synthetically as interest integration mechanisms imperfect, encouraging circum- stances, accidental event, the decline of government credibility, weak social control, social discontent and social tensions. Finally, based on the model, one management mode of three levels is proposed, including the establishment of new formulation, new laws and public policy adapted to the society and specific strategies of mass event.