基于系统动态分析的现金影响要素及趋势预测研究——以江苏省现金运行分析为例

On Influential Factors of Cash Demand and Prediction of Trend based on System Dynamics Analysis——the Case of Cash Operation in Jiangsu Province

本文从江苏省"十一五"期间现金运行情况分析和要素总结出发,引入系统动力学模型对货币政策、经济增长和现金运行的要素系统进行动态设计,指出各要素的方向和因果关系,分别采用季节趋势、SARIMA和BP神经网络三种模型对江苏省2010年4季度现金投放回笼情况进行分析预测,并对现金供应工作提出对策建议。

The article analyzes the cash operation in Jiangsu Province during eleventh five-year plan,introduces system dynamics model to design elements systems of monetary policy,economic growth and cash operation,and points out the direction and causality of each element.Then,the article uses season trend model,SARIMA and BP neural network model to analyze the cash statistics of Jiangsu Province in the fourth quarter of 2010,and presents policy suggestions concerning cash supply.