中国制造业的出口增长边际与贸易条件——基于中国1996—2009年微观贸易数据的实证研究

Export Margins and Trade Terms of Chinese Manufacturing Industries:Empirical Study on Micro Trade Data of China from 1996 to 2009

本文采用6位数级微观贸易数据,测度了1996-2009年中国制造行业的出口增长"二元边际"与三组"精确贸易条件",从产品种类变化的视角考察了中国制造业出口增长的微观结构,更精确地反映真实贸易条件。在此基础上,实证研究了中国制造业出口增长二元边际对精确贸易条件的影响。结果表明:(1)广度边际对贸易条件改善有积极作用,深度边际则反之。(2)广度边际对"低出口替代弹性"产品的贸易条件改善效应最大,对"高出口替代弹性"产品的贸易条件改善效应最小。(3)在中高技术行业,广度边际对贸易条件改善的正面影响大于中低技术行业。

The paper calculates the two kinds of margins of export growth and three exact price indices by 6 digit trade data of Chinese manufacture from 1996 to 2009. So it can not only study the microstructure of Chinese export growth from the product variety perspective, but also accurately reflect Chinese real terms of trade. According to the empirical study which re- searches the effect of two kinds of margins of export growth on the exact terms of trade in China, it concludes the following re- suhs. Firstly, the extensive margin has a positive effect on the improvement of trade terms, and the intensive margin has the in- verse effect. Secondly, for the products with low elasticity of substitution, the extensive margin p^ay the biggest effect on the improvement trade terms ; but for the products with high elasticity of substitution, the extensive margin play the smallest effect on the improvement trade terms. At last, positive influence of the extensive margin on improvement of trade terms is bigger in higher technology industries than that in lower technology industries.