1644～1911年影响华东沿海的台风发生频率重建

RECONSTRUCTION OF THE AFFECTING EAST CHINA TYPHOON FREQUENCY,1644～1911AD

基于清代、民国期间多种历史文献中的风、雨、潮现象和"颶、颱"记载重建了1644～1911年影响今华东浙、沪、苏的台风频率序列F。清代史料中记载了该区受263次台风影响,年均0.98次。功率谱和小波分析显示18世纪中期至20世纪初,4a周期表现最为明显。F与Nino3指数基本对应,反映出入境华东的台风对极端ENSO事件并不敏感,强LaNina年和强ElNino年入境本区的台风频率基本相同。研究时段内,在多年代际尺度上,北半球及中国东部地区的增暖会增加影响华东沿海的台风发生频率。

In Jiangsu,Shanghai and Zhejiang,the 3 provinces of East China,typhoon is the most important weather system.In this study,the frequency of the typhoon affecting this region is reconstructed based on kinds of historical documents and archives during 1644~1911,and the result is called F series.The average value of F is 0.98 t/a.Based on the wavelet analysis,the 4 a is the most notable period.1720~1770s,1780~1800s,1810s and 1850~1900s had 2~4 a period,while 1640~1700s and 1750~1890s had 4~8 a period.The trend of F and Nino3 index are almost same,the frequency of typhoon which affect this region is the result of ENSO changing perhaps.ElNino leads to the value of F growing in the region during Qing dynasty.During the study period,in a multi-decadal scale,the warming in northern hemisphere and eastern China will increase the impact of the typhoon frequency in eastern coastal areas.