基于动态分析的我国农业产出与农民农业收入关联研究

Research on Correlation between Farmer's Agricultural Income and Agricultural Output in China Based on Dynamic Analysis

考察了农产品价格和产出量的决定机制,构建农民的农业收入和农产品总产出的联立模型,分析二者的联动关系并得到结论:农民的农业收入受到农产品产出影响并通过价格影响农产品产出;农产品产出农业由上期农产品的价格决定,上期农产品价格上升则当期农产品总产出增加;农产品价格受到农产品产出、农村和城镇居民收入的影响,其中城镇居民收入的影响程度较高;农产品供给弹性大于需求弹性,因此价格和产量均衡被打破后不可能自动回归,需要政府进行宏观政策调控。

In this paper,we study the decision mechanism of prices of agricultural products and output of agricultural products,and establish simultaneous equation model between farmers＇ agricultural income and the total output of agricultural products,to analyse the dynamic relationship between the two.The results show that farmers＇ agricultural income affects output of agricultural products via price,and is also affected by output of agricultural products;the output of agricultural products is determined by the prices of agricultural products in the previous period,and if the prices of agricultural products in the previous period rise,then the total output of agricultural products in the current period increases;the prices of agricultural products are affected by output of agricultural products and urban and rural residents＇ income,the urban residents＇ income having greater impact;the supply elasticity of agricultural products is greater than demand elasticity,therefore,the balance between price and output can not regress after being breached,which needs the government to conduct macro-control.