比较优势演化与经济增长——基于阿根廷的实证分析

Evolution of Comparative Advantage and Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis Based on Argentina

基于SITC四位码的产品出口数据,本文测算了阿根廷1980—2009年的出口多样化及产品复杂性指数,继而,通过计量分析发现产品复杂性与阿根廷实际人均GDP增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,产品复杂性的提升有助于阿根廷的经济发展,这与比较优势演化理论的预期一致。然而方差分解结果显示,产品复杂性对阿根廷人均GDP虽然有一定贡献,但是贡献率并不高,由此得出阿根廷通过比较优势演化实现产业升级与经济增长的良性机制并未充分形成。通过对阿根廷经济经验的分析,本文得出了中国实现比较优势演化和跨越中等收入阶段的几点启示。

Based on the data of SITC 4 digital products, we calculate the diversification and product complexity of Argentina between 1980 and 2009. The paper then examines the long-run relationship and dynamic interactions between complexity and economic growth. Consistent with comparative advantage evolution theory, we find product complexity has a positive significant effect to economic growth in Argentina. Variance decomposition results show that although contribution ratio of complexity to economic growth becomes increasingly stronger, it is not very high. The mechanism of realizing industrial upgrading and economic growth by comparative advantage evolution has not yet formed. Based on above conclusion, we arrive at the suggestions about Chinese industrial upgrading and cross the stage of middle income.