石油合同对国际油气合作博弈影响分析

Impact Analysis of Oil Contract Model for International Cooperative Game of Oil and Gas Resources

本文建立了国际油气合作中的资源国与消费国之间的合作博弈模型,分析了不同的油气合同模式对资源消费国效用水平的影响。研究表明,合同模式在油气合作博弈中扮演着重要角色。从投资者的角度看,为获得效用最大化,投资者不但应注意投资区块的选择,还要对资源国的合同模式进行深入分析和利弊权衡。通过对几种石油合同模式的比较,发现在总收益相同的条件下,从风险大小的角度考虑,纯服务合同带来的效用大于产品分成合同和矿税制合同;从收益的角度考虑,产品分成合同和矿税制合同使资源消费国保留了油价上涨时获取高额利润的权利,带来的效用大于技术服务合同。

This article established the game model between the host country and the consumer country in the international cooperation of oil and gas resources,and analyzed the influence of different oil and gas cooperation models to consumer countries＇ utility level.The study found that the contract model in oil and gas cooperative game plays an important role.From an investor point of view,in order to obtain maximum utility,investors should note that investment is not only the choice of blocks,but also the contract model of resource,they should make depth analysis and trade-offs.Compare different models of several oil contracts,we found that if considering at risk level,pure service contract brings greater utility than product sharing contract and ore tax contract in the same condition of total revenue.If considering at earning level,the product sharing contract and ore tax contract retain the right for consumer countries of getting the high profit when the oil price goes up,its utility is greater than technical service contract.