中国货币供给与通货膨胀的关联性研究

Research on the Relevance between Money Supply and Inflation in China

关于货币供给与通货膨胀的关联性,学者们还没有形成一致的看法。理论上,货币供给与通货膨胀具有一定的关联性。通货膨胀有需求拉动型和成本推动型,在通货膨胀的原因中有"货币因素",也有"非货币因素"。实证检验表明:中国货币供应量与物价指数不存在长期的稳定均衡关系,但货币供应量是物价指数的格兰杰原因,反之则不然。事实上,中国通货膨胀或通货膨胀压力一方面是与货币供给有关,另一方面还与结构性因素有关。因此,要实现中国经济的低通胀运行:一是实行总量均衡和结构合理的货币供给模式;二是采取更有效的货币政策;三是推进经济结构调整,实现国际收支平衡;四是深化金融体系改革,增强中央银行货币控制能力;五是进行汇率机制改革;六是通过财政政策调整供需结构。

Scholars don＇t form a consensus about the relevance between money supply and inflation.There is theoretical relevance between money supply and inflation.Inflation is not only of demand-pull type,but also of cost-push type.At the same time,there is ＂monetary factors＂ and also ＂non-monetary factors＂ in the reasons of inflation.The empirical analysis shows that there was no relationship of long-term stable equilibrium between Chinese money supply and price index,but china＇s money supply is the Granger causes of the price index,vice versa.In fact,on the one hand China＇s inflation or inflationary pressure is associated with the money supply,on the other hand is also associated with the structural factors.Therefore,it is needed for the growth of Chinese economics to run in low-inflation to achieve model of money supply in which there is aggregate equilibrium and rational structure,to adopt more effective monetary policy,to carry forward adjustment of economic structure and achieve balance of payments,to deep the reform of financial system and strengthen Central Bank＇s ability of controlling money,to carry on a reform of the mechanism of exchange rate,and to adjust supply and demand structure through fiscal policy.