人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡性问题研究

RMB Exchange Rate and Trade Imbalance

文章基于2006年第一季度到2011年第二季度的数据,引入美对华高新技术出口管制和热钱因素并将它们量化,通过实证分析来探讨影响中美贸易顺差和美元对人民币汇率的影响因素。研究表明:美国过度消费和人民币币值是造成中美顺差的主要因素;中国经济的发展和市场对人民币升值的预期则是人民币对美元升值的主要因素,且顺差过多会产生通胀压力。因此,美国提高储蓄控制过度消费、中国推进人民币汇率市场化才能平衡中美贸易;合理引导国际资本流动以削弱热钱对经济的冲击、加强人民币汇率机制的透明性和规范性以消除市场预期造成的汇率扭曲。

This paper,based on the data of the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2011,introduces new factors of export controls of high technology to China and hot money and quantifies them,through empirical analysis to study the trade imbalance and appreciation of RMB.The empirical research shows： in the long term,consumption of America is the most important factor to cause imbalance of trade,RMB exchange rate is another factor which causes it.The power of china is the most important reason for appreciation of RMB.In the short term,the export controls begin to impact the imbalance of the trade,the anticipation of people and the hot money become the main factor to affect exchange rate of RMB.