智能加权灰靶决策理论在水库除险加固中的应用

Application of multi-objective intelligent weighted grey target decision in reservoir reinforcement and danger removal design

对病险水库除险加固设计中的风险因素进行科学分析,制定针对性的风险管理计划,是保证工程顺利进行的关键。采用多目标智能加权灰靶决策理论对某病险水库的防渗设计、上游坝坡、溢洪道消能改造的设计方案进行风险决策优化,使设计效果更优。优化中确定了4个重要的决策目标,即处理效果、与当地条件结合度、施工难度、投资成本,其中处理效果、与当地条件结合度、施工难度为定性目标,需通过专家打分法进行评价。经过优化,使设计过程中决策更加科学,对风险的控制能力得以提高。

Analyzing the risk factors in reinforcement engineering of ill and dangerous reservoir and making targeted risk management plan are the key factors for guaranteeing the smooth construction of the project. We make a risk decision analysis on the design schemes of anti - seepage design, reinforcement of upstream dam slope and spillway by multi - objective intelligent weigh- ted grey target decision method for a ill and dangerous reservoir. We determined 4 important decision targets, namely treatment effects, combination effect with local condition, construction difficulties and investment, in which, treatment effects and combination effect with local condition are qualitative targets which should be assessed by expert scoring method. The method can make the decision process of design more scientific and improve the risk control ability.