摘要
采用包括广义极值分布、威布尔分布、广义逻辑斯特分布和皮尔逊3型分布在内的4种三参数概率分布模式推算广东省85个气象站历年日最大降水不同重现水平的分位数。主要结果如下:1)参数估计结果表明不存在普遍适用的极端降水概率分布模式;2)广东极端降水以珠江三角洲和沿海较为突出。其中,清远、汕尾、阳江为广东三大极端降水中心区;3)采用4种概率分布模式推算的极端降水重现水平差别很大。
Four probability distribution models,generalized extreme value distribution,Weibull distribution,log-logistic distribution and Pearson type-III distribution,were used to calculate the different return levels of maximum daily precipitation for 85 stations in Guangdong province.The main results are as follows： 1） The results of parameter estimation indicate that there is no universally applicable extreme precipitation probability distribution model;2） The extreme precipitation occurs more frequently in the Pearl River Delta and the coastal areas of Guangdong among which Qingyuan,Shanwei and Yangjiang are three extreme precipitation centers;3） The return levels of extreme precipitation differ greatly between the calculations of four probability distribution models.
出处
《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期102-106,共5页
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni
基金
广东水利创新资助项目(2011370004209292)
关键词
三参数概率分布模式
极端降水
拟合优度检验
重现水平
广东
three-parameter probability distribution models
extreme precipitation
goodness-of-fit test
return levels
Guangdong
