改进层次分析法的瓦斯涌出量组合预测方法研究

Combination forecast method of gas emission amount based on improved AHP

为了提高矿井瓦斯涌出量的预测精度,采用改进层次分析法对指数预测,双曲线预测和灰色预测3种传统预测方法,从稳定性,数据利用和适用时间上来进行加权组合,提出一种基于改进层次分析法的组合预测方法,并对西北某矿区4月份的绝对瓦斯涌出量数据进行研究。结果表明,与几种传统方法的独立预测结果相比,该方法精度较高,也易于操作,对矿区瓦斯预测有一定的指导意义。

In order to improve the forecast accuracy of gas emission amount in the coalmine, three original forecast methods, exponential prediction, hyperbola prediction and grey prediction were combined. The combination weights were determined by Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP）. By using the combination forecast method to predict the gas emission amount of a coalmine in northwest, the results showed that this method had a better accuracy and easy operation, comparing with the results of three original forecast methods. The method had a certain directive significance to the gas prediction.