气候变暖的第一影响因素及我国的应对

The First Factor of Global Climate Warming and How China Face It

全球气候变暖已是人们逐渐接受的事实,由于大气中二氧化碳等气体含量的升高引起的温室效应是导致全球气温变暖的显著原因。经过统计分析发现,大气中碳含量的增加与全球森林面积减少、化石能源燃烧增加的碳排放高度相关,但年均0.4%增速的大气中的碳含量是与按年均0.2%速度递减的全球森林面积存在显著的统计上的因果关系,乱砍滥伐、开发耕地等导致的全球森林面积的减少是大气中二氧化碳含量增加的格兰杰因果关系原因,从而构成全球变暖的第一影响因素。二氧化碳排放量的增加一直比较平稳,年增速在2.2%左右,它与大气中的碳含量的增加虽然相关,但因果关系统计上并不显著,也不是其格兰杰因果关系原因,这一结论与IPCC的报告中二氧化碳排放量是全球变暖的主要原因的结论并不完全一致。据此,我们提出中国应对全球变暖时谨防陷入"碳排放陷阱"。

Global climate warming is gradually realized by more and more people. Greenhouse effect which is mainly formed by carbon dioxide emissions is significant reason of global climate warming. In this paper, we analyze the problem of global climate warming with statistical methods and.find out that the increase of carbon dioxide in atmospheric is highly relevant with the reducing of global forest area and the increase of carbon dioxide emissions by burning fossil fuels. There is a statistically causal relationship between the average annual growth rate of 0.4% increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the average annual growth rate of 0.2% decreasing of global forest area. That decreasing of global forest area caused by deforestation and arable land is Granger cause of increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and becomes the first factor of global climate warming. The increase in carbon dioxide emissions have been relatively stable, the annual growth rate at 2.2 percent. Although it is related with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but the causal relationship is not statistically significant and is not its Granger cause. This conclusion is not entirely consistent whit the ICPP report which point out carbon dioxide emissions is the main reason for global warming. As it, we remind our government not into ＂carbon emissions trap＂ when facing global climate warming problem.