基于三次指数平滑法的中国港口铁矿石吞吐量预测

China's Port Throughput of Iron Ore Forecast Based on Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method

进入21世纪以来,在经济全球化背景下,中国钢铁工业的快速发展,外贸进口铁矿石的数量呈现快速增长态势,港口已成为国际通道连接的重要节点。介绍了中国铁矿石港口的发展现状及特点,影响港口发展的因子,并利用三次指数平滑法预测未来中国铁矿石港口吞吐量。结果显示,未来中国港口铁矿石的吞吐量还是保持持续增长的,到2020年略有下降。

Under the background of economic globalization in the 21st century,China＇s iron and steel industry develops fast.The number of the iron ore import in foreign trade presents a fast growth trend,and the port has become an important node that connects international transportation passageways.This paper introduces the characteristics and current situation of the development of the iron ore port in our country, and the influence factors of the iron ore port development.By applying cubic exponential smoothing method,it forecasts the throughput of China iron ore port in the future.The results show that China＇s port throughput of iron ore will maintain a sustained growth in the future, declined slightly in 2020.