需求不确定下的移动通信消费者使用行为研究

Research on Usage Behavior of Mobile Consumers Under the Uncertainty of Consumer Demand

从微观层面分析资费选择、多业务之间相关性等因素对移动通信消费者使用行为的影响,并实证分析各因素对用户业务使用量的具体影响,本地被叫通话时长与用户本地主叫通话需求呈正相关,用户的短信接收量对其主叫业务需求存在明显的反馈效应,免费通话量对使用行为的"约束"效果随着资费的升高也越来越明显。在此基础上,建立了选择-修正的两步资费套餐使用需求模型,通过实际数据进行参数估计,获得较好的结果。

The influence of these factors such as tariff choice and multi-service on usage action of consumer is discussed from microcosmic and a case study is given to validate the methodology based on above conclusion.The analysis indicates that there is positive correlation between local called duration and local caller demand.Message amount accepted has an obvious feedback effect on local caller demand.The confining effect of free call-duration on usage action is more and more obvious with tariff increase.Based on above analysis the usage model of tariff of selection-amendment is created.The estimation of model based on practical data shows a good result.