我国通胀演变的决定因素与传导机制研究

Determinants and Transmission Mechanism of Inflation in China

本文采用向量自回归模型和滚动回归方法实证研究了我国通胀演变的决定因素,结论表明,通胀预期和成本因素的变动能够快速传导至通胀指标,但其影响力可以在短期内予以消化。而需求因素和货币因素对通胀指标的传导时滞相对较长,但影响更为深远,是决定通胀变动的根源所在。在此基础上,对影响社会需求、货币供应、企业成本、通胀预期的深层因素和传导机制做了进一步的分析。最后,就我国的反通胀政策提出了几点建议。

Using vector autoregression model and rolling regression, this paper carries out an empirical study on the determinants of inflation in China. The findings reveal that the variability of inflation expectation and cost factors can affect inflation quickly, but the effects will disappear in short term. In comparison with it, there is more time lag in transmitting of demand and money factors to inflation, but these two factors are origins of determining inflation evolution. Then, the authors analyze the in-depth factors and mechanism of affecting social demand, monetary supply, enterprise cost, inflation expect^ttion. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions for anti-inflation policy of China.