情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析

Scenario-driven risk analysis of regional natural disasters

随着近年来自然灾害发生频次的增加与巨灾效应的不断涌现,人们对自然灾害风险分析提出了更高的要求与期望。然而,由于人们对"风险"认识的不全面与不系统,导致了灾害风险分析理论与技术水平的停滞不前。"风险是与某种不利事件有关的一种未来情景"是我们对"风险"的诠释。据该定义可知,风险不仅仅只是着眼于过去,更重要的是要展望未来;风险不再只是历史灾难的统计,而是未来不利事件情景的分析。因此,"情景分析"成为风险研究的一项新手段,它不仅摒弃了传统方法仅着眼"过去"的局限性而实现从"过去"到"现在"到"未来"合理过渡的研究思路,而且摒弃了传统方法仅限于因子统计分析的局限性而实现系统分析的研究理念。以"情景分析"为技术手段,提出了情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析方法,旨在探讨对风险研究思路与技术的创新。

Risk analysis of regional natural disasters, such as flood, typhoon and earthquake, have increasingly be- come core subjects of natural disaster researches in recent years. However, there is still slow progress in the theory and methodology of risk analysis of regional natural disasters due to our incomplete and unsystematic knowledge of risk concept. ＇ Risk is a set of scenarios in the future associated with some adverse incidents＇ was our scientific definition to risk. From this definition, it can be seen that risk analysis is not just to investigate the past but more importantly is to take a look at the future, i.e. to carry out the scenario analysis of future possible adverse inci- dents. Thus, in this paper, a new method, scene-driven risk analysis method was developed to be applied in the risk analysis of regional natural disasters.