风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用——研究进展

Application of risk assessment in evaluation of influence of climate change on agricultural production: review and prospect

基于风险理论,探讨了气候变化风险的内涵,介绍了可用于气候变化影响评价的风险评估概念框架,并着重总结了风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用。随着目前概率型气候情景的广泛应用及利益相关者与公众对影响评估中的不确定性认识的需求,风险评估将在气候变化影响评价中得到更为广泛的应用,气候变化对农业的影响也有望基于风险形式实现终端至终端的评估。同时,当前气候变化农业影响的风险评估研究仍有许多不足之处,真正实现综合全面的评估尚有诸多问题需要解决。

Based on risk theory, this paper discusses the connotation of climate change risk, introduces the conceptual framework of risk assessment for climate change impacts, and specifically summarizes the application of risk assessment in climate change impacts on agricultural production. As ensemble modeling technology developed in elimate modeling, climate projection community is now capable of producing probabilistie climate change information for impacts assessments, which can be directly fed into risk assessment. As a result, climate change impacts on agricultural production will realize an end-to-end impacts assessment through a risk-based approach. There are,however, many challenges ahead in integrated assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural production.