能力共享可降低服务运作系统的应急成本么?——基于两种能力支援的应急决策模型研究

Can Disruption Cost be Greatly Cut Down Via Capacity-Sharing? A Model Research Based on Two Kinds of Capacity Trading Mode

与伙伴企业进行能力共享被很多管理者视为波动运营环境下增强系统的运作柔性和降低运营成本的有效措施之一,但一些大型的服务运作系统,如电力、通信等核心能力在突发事件后损毁的情况下,能力共享是否也可降低应急期间的运作成本?为验证该观点,本文对2006年中国电信海底光缆震断后的应急实践进行了抽象,并研究了能力共享伙伴向受损系统进行正常和快速两种能力支援情景下的多阶段应急决策问题,通过建模和数值分析后发现:能力共享对降低大型服务运作系统的应急成本极为有限、成本的降低极大程度上依赖于自身能力恢复的速度等4个有益应急管理的结论。

Sharing capacity with partners is considered as one of the most effective measures to improve the operational flexibility and performance of the operation system in a violate environment. However, whether capacity-sharing could really lower the operational cost when some large-scaled service operation system, such as power-grid or telecommunication system＇s critical capacity is crippled by some unexpected events？ To probe the question, we re-investigate the practice of China Telecom Corporation when its submarine cables are partially damaged by earthquake. After the abstraction, we focus on the scenario that capacity- sharing partners provide two kinds of capacity supports： regular and expedite capacity supports, a multiple period decision model is presented correspondingly. After the numerical analysis, we find an interesting phenomenon that shortening the time of re-putting recovered capacity into use, capacity-sharing contributes rather little to cut down the disruption cost. Beside four important managerial insights are obtained.