日本大地震对中国进口日本汽车零部件的影响分析

Research on the Impacts of the Japanese Earthquake Tsunami to Japanese Auto Parts Imported to China

作为中国汽车零部件最大的进口国,日本大地震对中国汽车产业的影响最为显著。本文采用自组织数据挖掘的GMDH模型方法,建立日本地震对中国进口日本汽车零部件影响的GMDH模型。结果表明,日本大地震后中国进口日本汽车零部件数量经历了一个涨——跌——跌——起——正常的过程,大地震对后续三个月中国日系汽车零部件市场有非常严重的显著影响。

As the largest import country of auto parts to China, the impacts of the Japan earthquake tsunami to Chinese auto industry is the most significant. With a self-organization data mining method, we establish the GMDH model on the impacts of Japan earthquake tsunami to Chinese auto industry in this paper to analyze the impacts of the earthquake tsunami to Chinese auto parts market. It is demonstrated that after the earthquake tsunami, the amount of China importing Japanese auto parts has gone through such a process： Going up-down-down-rising to normal levels. Japanese auto parts imported to China in three months after the earthquake suffered a very serious significant effect by Japanese earthquake tsunami.