基于粒子群算法的天气滚动预报集成技术

Integration Technology of Rolling Weather Forecast Based on PSO

针对集成预报的权重分布法,采用具有全局寻优特点的粒子群算法优化其权重系数,以更好地集中各种预报模式的优势.以天津地区天气预报为实例,建立基于粒子群算法的集成预报模型,实现多种预报模式的集成处理,结果表明该方法对于短时天气预报具有较好的准确度.

As to the weight distribution method of integrated forecast, using PSO （particle swarm optimization） which has good global optimization characteristics can optimize its weight factor and make the best of the advantages of various forecasting models. Take the weather forecast of Tianjin region as example. The integrated forecasting model based on PSO was established and the integration of several forecasting models was realized. Results show that the method has an acceptable accuracy for short-term weather forecasting.