船舶海上应急评价初探

Study on emergency evaluation of the ship at sea

尝试将综合安全评估(FSA)的原理和步骤应用到船舶海上应急管理的评价方面。依据FSA的流程,通过咨询、系统分析和向专家发调查表等方法以及不断地修改完善,构建了船舶海上应急管理评价的指标体系,运用德尔菲法(Delphi)和层次分析法(AHP)确定了各指标的权重。然后,用模糊综合评价方法建立评价数学模型,并依据评价结果,给出了提高和改善船舶整体应急能力的建议。

In this paper the theory and steps of the FSA were applied on emergency evaluation of the ship at sea.Thereafter,through consultation,system analysis and other measures,according to the FSA flow,evaluation indexsystem of marine emergency management was established,and the weights of each factor were confirmed with the theory of Delphi and AHP（Analytic Hierarchy Process）.Subsequently,fuzzy synthetic evaluation was selected to establish the mathematics model,and according to the assessment results,some recommendations were given from two facets,about how to advance and improve the ability of the holistic meeting the emergency.