内江市近40年气温和降水变化趋势分析

Change trend of temperature and precipitation in Neijiang in recent 40 years

气温和降水是诸多气候要素中的主要因子,二者的变化直接影响气候变化,是气候变化的主导因素。采用二阶拟合分析方法和R/S方法相结合,对四川盆中丘陵区的典型城市内江市的4个台站年均气温和年降水量的变化趋势进行分析。结果表明,该市气温和年降水量的变化特征不尽相同。气温在过去近40 a间呈先下降后上升的趋势,同时Hurst指数为0.402 4,说明当地未来气温增加的趋势可能具有反持久性;过去近40 a的年降水量呈现减少趋势,但降水量的Hurst指数为0.339 3,说明当地年降水量减少的趋势也具有反持续性。

Temperature and precipitation are the main factors which affect the climate directly.By using methods of Fitting of a second degree parabola and Rescaled range analysis（R/S）,the change characteristics of the annual average temperature and the annual precipitation in Neijiang city,which is located in the Central Hilly Re-gion of Sichuan Basin,were analyzed.The results showed that changes of the temperature and annual precipita-tion were not in the same trend entirely in recent 40 years.The temperature decreased firstly and then increased afterwards,while the Hurst index was 0.4024,which indicated that there might exist the Hurst phenomenon in the future.Although the annual precipitation presented a declining trend in recent 40 years,but the Hurst index of the precipitation was 0.3393,which meant that the annual precipitation in the future would be likely to ascend.