我国烟草对外贸易影响因素探析

The Study on the Influential Factors of Foreign Tobacco Trade in China

运用基于国际贸易面板数据的引力模型,实证分析了我国烟草产业发展的对外贸易影响因素。结果表明,关税、距离以及贸易国的禁烟预算开支等对烟草进出口都有一定的影响,全球烟草业的发展对我国烟草的进口影响较大,而各国出台的禁烟法律尚未对我国的烟草出口造成很大的负面效应。另一方面,我国对很多国家的烟草贸易存在过分依赖的现象,但其发展潜力还比较大。

The influencing factors of tobacco imports and exports were analyzed empirically using the gravity model,and then,the tobacco trade potential was also analyzed.Conclusions showed that the tariffs,distance and estimated expenditure of banning smoking in trading nations had certain influences on the import and export.The development of world tobacco had a great effect on the import of our country,while the banning smoking laws in some countries have not yet caused great negative effects to China＇s tobacco exports.On the other hand,China over-relied on many countries on the tobacco trade,but its potential was still relatively large.