我国农村产业结构偏离对农村经济增长影响的实证分析

Empirical analysis of the impact of China's rural industrial structure deviation on rural economic growth

采用经济计量学的研究方法,构建农村产业结构偏离对农村经济增长影响的向量误差修正模型(VEC),并在此基础上就农村产值结构与农村就业结构的结构偏离对农村经济增长的影响进行了全面详细的实证分析,通过对相关变量进行脉冲分析和方差分解,较好地解释了农村产业结构偏离对农村经济增长的影响机制。研究表明:农村产业结构偏离与农村经济增长之间存在长期均衡的协整关系,农村产业结构偏离相关变量是农村经济增长相关变量的Granger原因。模型科学地描述了农村产业结构偏离与农村经济增长之间的互动关系,揭示了农村经济发展的内在规律性,对于研究农村经济发展有着重要的现实意义。

The author builds a vector error correction model（VEC） of rural industrial structure deviation on rural economic growth,using econometric research methods,and on this basis,a comprehensive and detailed empirical analysis was conducted concerning the influence of the rural industrial structure and the rural empIoyment structure deviations on rural economic growth.Through the pulse analysis and variance decomposition to the relevant variables,the influence mechanism of the rural economic structure deviation on rural economic growth was well expIained.The results show that in the long-term equilibrium,there exists a cointegration relationship between rural industrial structure deviation and rural economic growth,and rural industrial structure deviation from related variables is Granger cause of rural economic growth related variables.In this model,the interaction of the rural industrial structure deviation and rural economic growth was described scientificly,and the inherent regularity of rural economic development was revealed,which has an important practical significance for the study of rural economic development.