应用集中度和圆形分布法分析济南市主要传染病的季节性特征

Analysis of seasonal characteristics of main infectious diseases from 2004 to 2010 in Jinan City

目的探讨济南市主要传染病的季节性变化特征,为制定防治策略和采取有效控制措施提供科学依据。方法采用集中度和圆形分布法对济南市2004-2010年的10种主要传染病的流行季节特征进行分析。结果细菌性痢疾、急性出血性结膜炎、手足口病和布病的M值分别为0.590 2、0.552 1、0.607 6和0.440 5;用圆形分布法求得细菌性痢疾、急性出血性结膜炎、手足口病和布病的发病高峰日分别为7月27日、9月7日、6月20日和7月18日。集中度M值和圆形分布R值呈高度正相关(r=0.999,P<0.001)。结论细菌性痢疾、急性出血性结膜炎和手足口病有明显的季节性,布病有一定的季节性,应据此及时开展针对性的防控措施。

Objective To study the seasonal changes of infectious diseases and provide scientific basis for the control strategy and measures.Methods Concentration and circular distribution method were employed to analyze the epidemic seasonal characteristics of infectious disease from 2004 to 2010 in Jinan.Results The M value of bacillary dysentery,acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis,hand-foot-mouth disease and brucellosis were 0.5902,0.5521,0.6076 and 0.4405.The peak time of bacillary dysentery,acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis,hand-foot-mouth disease and brucellosis was July 27,September 7,June 20 and July 18 using circular distribution method.There was positive correlation between M and R values（r=0.999,P0.001）.Conclusion Bacillary dysentery,acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis and hand-foot-mouth disease have obvious seasonal characteristics.Brucellosis has certain seasonal characteristics.We should take pertinence precaution measure timely.